Long Term Rainfall Outlook for Southern Africa – Return of El Niño?

Arid Southern Africa Drought and El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Last Updated on 16th November 2019 2:26 PM by AfriWX

🤦‍♂️ We have just received the latest long term rainfall forecasts from the IRI and it’s really not looking good at all.

International Research Institute for Climate and Society

The IRI / Climate Society are specialists in forecasting long term rainfall outlooks both through computer modelling and human forecasting combined.

The IRI is also the definitive organization who monitors ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) and La Niña weather cycles.

Possible return of El Niño?

We have already seen reports of El Niño returning in 2020 and these latest long-term rainfall forecasts for Southern Africa, seem to be confirming that this is truly a possibility now.

PLEASE do NOT take this post as fear-mongering by any means.

PLEASE Take this post as an advisory.

Consider yourself advised rather than sitting in the dark or with your head in the sand regarding the state of our climate.

Long Term Rainfall Outlook for Southern Africa - Return of El Niño? 1

Be Water Wise NOW

Do not wait for water restrictions, do not wait until dams run dry and do not wait until Government wakes up and realises we have a water problem.

We ARE a water-scarce country, we always will be, and we should ALL use water sparingly all the time.

Dismal Spring Rainfall

Our rainfall season thus far has been DISMAL, to say the least.

Rainfall forecasts have failed repeatedly and we are already mid-November and our rainfall figures for the country are really not looking good.

Many farmers have not even put a seed into the ground because the ground in many parts is still bone dry due to lack of soil moisture as we have not had any substantial rainfall.

We hate to be the bearers of bad news but the reality is we have just not had any good rainfall so far this season.

Current medium and long-term forecasts are also not looking good, so put two and two together and use your own common sense.

Think before you open that tap … think where that water comes from.

Be #WaterWise

Rainfall Outlook Maps December 2019 through to May 2020

Images below are Copyright: IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Just REMEMBER we are that tiny little piece in the bottom of these maps.

Long Term Rainfall Outlook for Africa and Southern Africa December 2019 January February 2020
Long Term Rainfall Outlook for Africa and Southern Africa December 2019 January February 2020- Copyright: IRI
Long Term Rainfall Outlook for Africa and Southern Africa January February March 2020
Long Term Rainfall Outlook for Africa and Southern Africa January February March 2020 Copyright: IRI
Long Term Rainfall Outlook for Africa and Southern Africa February March April 2020
Long Term Rainfall Outlook for Africa and Southern Africa February March April 2020 Copyright: IRI
Long Term Rainfall Outlook for Africa and Southern Africa March April May 2020
Long Term Rainfall Outlook for Africa and Southern Africa March April May 2020 Copyright: IRI

Outlook from the South African Weather Service

Here is also a recent media release from the South African Weather Service – which says “Uncertain Summer Outlook”

Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for South Africa - Media Release
Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for South Africa – Media Release
Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for South Africa - Media Release
Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for South Africa – Media Release

Just how arid / dry is Southern Africa?

Take a look at today’s Satellite image and decide for yourself if Southern Africa is water rich in any way. We have marked green-ish areas while the rest of the country looks very much dry.

Arid Southern Africa and Drought
The only green areas noticeable via satellite imagery.

Once again, take this post as an advisory. Install a rain tank on your house and use water sparingly. EVERY DROP COUNTS !!!!

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